Friday, November 09, 2012

Cruising the Web

I thought Sean Trende had one of the most interesting analyses of the Republicans' loss. He pins it on the "missing white voters" who didn't show up to vote rather than on a surge of minority voters.
The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.
Jay Cost echoes these points in his post-election analysis. All that "war on women" rhetoric worked. The Democrats are all about identity politics these days and nominating a multi-millionaire didn't help the Republicans to combat those messages. I know that I had intelligent students who, in our post-election class discussions, said that they couldn't have supported Romney because he wanted to ban contraception. They just totally bought all those lies and mischaracterizations.

Jay Cost also offers some heartening historical analysis for conservatives.

Alan Draper at USA Today comments on how it has been Ben Bernanke's Fed policies that have kept the economy above water rather than any policy that Obama has adopted. So, ironically, the Obama presidency was saved by a legacy of the Bush presidency.

One bright spot for disheartened conservatives is that the unions suffered a major defeat in Michigan where they tried to enshrine the right for public unions to have collective bargaining into the state constitution. Apparently, Michigan voters are awake to what a disaster that would be to their state's economy despite all the money the unions put into getting that passed.

Charles Krauthammer offers the GOP a way forward without having to abandon principles. The most important step is supporting a policy in immigration that addresses border security first but then promises amnesty immediately once the border is secured. That is the path to a grand compromise, but I don't know that Democrats would go for such a sensible one-two solution.

Michael Barone analyzes the structural advantages that the Republicans have in keeping control of the House to counter the advantages that the Democrats have gained in the Electoral College.

Tom Bevan and Carl M. Cannon provide 21 reasons for Obama's victory and Romney's defeat. I'd agree with a lot of these' but what strikes me is how few of these are actually structural problems of the GOP, but were rather unique to this one campaign.

Ace notes how many of the electorate made up their minds the week before the elction and seemed to have been affected by seeing the President address hurricane disaster relief. It was a Black Swan event that won the election for Obama. It's tough for me to think that people ignored the past four years and voted on the basis of a couple of days of photo ops and nice speeches, but then who can fathom how such uninvolved voters make up their minds.

Republicans Get Out the Vote efforts were a major fail compared to the Democrats. This, at least, should be somewhat of a fixable problem. Fortunately, there seem to be a set of young Republican campaign operatives, aides and policy wonks who are eager to take over from the older Bush-era generation of operatives.