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Friday, November 09, 2012

Cruising the Web

I thought Sean Trende had one of the most interesting analyses of the Republicans' loss. He pins it on the "missing white voters" who didn't show up to vote rather than on a surge of minority voters.
The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator.
Jay Cost echoes these points in his post-election analysis. All that "war on women" rhetoric worked. The Democrats are all about identity politics these days and nominating a multi-millionaire didn't help the Republicans to combat those messages. I know that I had intelligent students who, in our post-election class discussions, said that they couldn't have supported Romney because he wanted to ban contraception. They just totally bought all those lies and mischaracterizations.

Jay Cost also offers some heartening historical analysis for conservatives.

Alan Draper at USA Today comments on how it has been Ben Bernanke's Fed policies that have kept the economy above water rather than any policy that Obama has adopted. So, ironically, the Obama presidency was saved by a legacy of the Bush presidency.

One bright spot for disheartened conservatives is that the unions suffered a major defeat in Michigan where they tried to enshrine the right for public unions to have collective bargaining into the state constitution. Apparently, Michigan voters are awake to what a disaster that would be to their state's economy despite all the money the unions put into getting that passed.

Charles Krauthammer offers the GOP a way forward without having to abandon principles. The most important step is supporting a policy in immigration that addresses border security first but then promises amnesty immediately once the border is secured. That is the path to a grand compromise, but I don't know that Democrats would go for such a sensible one-two solution.

Michael Barone analyzes the structural advantages that the Republicans have in keeping control of the House to counter the advantages that the Democrats have gained in the Electoral College.

Tom Bevan and Carl M. Cannon provide 21 reasons for Obama's victory and Romney's defeat. I'd agree with a lot of these' but what strikes me is how few of these are actually structural problems of the GOP, but were rather unique to this one campaign.

Ace notes how many of the electorate made up their minds the week before the elction and seemed to have been affected by seeing the President address hurricane disaster relief. It was a Black Swan event that won the election for Obama. It's tough for me to think that people ignored the past four years and voted on the basis of a couple of days of photo ops and nice speeches, but then who can fathom how such uninvolved voters make up their minds.

Republicans Get Out the Vote efforts were a major fail compared to the Democrats. This, at least, should be somewhat of a fixable problem. Fortunately, there seem to be a set of young Republican campaign operatives, aides and policy wonks who are eager to take over from the older Bush-era generation of operatives.

10 comments:

wmr333 said...

It would be nice if all the GOP needed was to support open borders. I would be completely in support of such an easy move.

Unfortunately, we need to stop pretending that a switch on immigration has any effect. Hispanics are not secret fans of Milton Friedman, but just opposed to the GOP on immigration. Hispanics are liberal, they believe in big government and redistribution - (look at south America). Immigration policy was no where near their top priority.

Read Heather Mac Donald at national review:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332916/why-hispanics-dont-vote-republicans-heather-mac-donald

stan said...

The youngsters suffer from their own myopia. They work in campaigns so they think the problem and the answer revolve around the campaign. Not surprising, they like to get paid. But still Wrong.

The problem is that the other side campaigns all the time. The Dem politicians, their news media propagandists, and their vast networks of special interests work hard every day to push a left-wing world view. Their allies dominate the schools, universities, Hollywood, tv, charities, foundations, the arts ...

You don't trump all that with a few campaign ads in the last few weeks of an election every four years. And you aren't going to trump it with a real cool social media campaign.

It's time to get serious. Amateurs who focus on elections are getting overwhelmed by pros who focus on the constant campaign and dominate the culture. Everyone wants to win on game day. Losers show up and try really hard on game day. Winners prepare in the off-season. Winners lay the groundwork for winning long before the game is even on the schedule.

Dexter said...

OBummer, 51% of America has agreed that Romney was a bad choice. Great to see some movement, so quickly, on the affordable health care act, immigration, and the fiscal cliff.

If we don't see Boehner come to the center, we shall see a true mandate in 2016.

mark said...

Krauthammer is right that repubs need to reverse course on immigration. But don't fool yourselves about it not being an abandonment of principle. Conservatives were very clear that giving amnesty to criminals was not an option. It will be a flip-flop worthy of Mitt Romney.

elkh1 said...

"they couldn't have supported Romney because he wanted to ban contraception"

Someone's mind is thoroughly washed. The problem is the Republicans give their fellow citizens more credits than they deserve. The Republicans cannot believe their fellow citizens are so mindless. Now they know, but the country is going off the cliff. Like Venezuela, the poorer the country gets, the more so-called free people would vote for handouts. The more power and riches would accumulate to the people's Dear Leader and his cronies. Good for Argentina though, their middle class are hording the green backs which would multiply as fast as their pesos.

elkh1 said...

"I don't know that Democrats would go for such a sensible one-two solution"

Sensible, to whom? The Dems are not going to close off their spigots of voters, legal or other wise. The higher the number of "illegals" in their states, the higher the number of Representatives they will get in the House, the higher the number of electoral votes are guaranteed to them.

After more than a half century, they still have Roe v Wade to beat over the Republicans' heads. Why the hell won't they milk the illgals further for another 50 years?

Don't forget Bush's "sensible" policy was voted down by the Dems, not by the conservative Republicans. They have their MSM propaganda machine to spin and twist. At the end of the day, Bush was a monster who is still responsible for Obama's economy, it's Romney's fault to "politicize" Benghazi, Katrina was Bush fault, but Sandy "saved" Obama's re-election. Btw, the poor sob who made a video that did not cause the murder of the ambassador is spending his Thanksgiving and Christmas in jail.

I think more people should apply for disability benefits than for jobs, since disability covers mental stress now, and can be claimed by those who can't find a job they are trained for. Then the "disabled" should work odd jobs for cash.

mark said...

Did Romney really want to ban contraception or even abortion? I doubt it.
But while pandering to Mike Huckabee, he certainly left open that possibility:

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2011/10/03/334190/mitt-romeny-constitutional-amendment-abortioneption/?mobile=nc

Problem is Mitt has been on just about every side of every issue. That may have been fine for voters whose only goal was to get rid of Obama, but not good enough for people who actually want someone with principles. The last time we had a fairly decent person who let himself be controlled by others, we got the disaster of Bush 43. And why would anyone have wanted to go back to that?

elkh1 said...

"the disaster of Bush 43"

How so? A few examples will be good.

mark said...

Really elkh?

failure to heed warnings prior to 9/11?

Iraq war?

Katrina response?

blown surplus?

financial meltdown?

None of that rings a bell? Perhaps not your fault; repubs have done everything possible to help us forget.

fboness said...

I think the Republicans were looking for a reprise of the 1980 Reagan/Carter match. They forgot that to make that work they needed to bring a Reagan to the fight.