Monday, October 29, 2012

A campaign in amber

Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake explain how Hurricane Sandy will freeze the 2012 campaign in place. Few, except political junkies like myself, will be paying much attention to the race while the news is dominated by reporting on the damage from the hurricane. A hurricane that is hitting the two major media markets of New York City and Washington, D.C. will turn the focus of the media to the hurricane over the campaign. The candidates will have to change the tone of their message in this last week so that they don't seem unduly harsh.

I'll add in this thought that I had. We hear that the refusal rate in phone polling is about 91%. What do you think is going to happen to the refusal rate to polling phone calls when a significant area of the country is caught up with surviving the hurricane? Polls during the next week may be even more sketchy than usual.

1 comment:

elkh1 said...

The largest poll before Nov. 6: early voting.

As they say past performances do not guarantee future returns, neither do polls on random samples of 9% of the electorate. Polling is an industry created to hire unemployed statisticians and tea leaves readers.