Monday, January 18, 2010

Not wanting to jinx things, but...

I tend to be a tad superstitious, but I'm willing to go on record predicting that Brown will not only win tomorrow, but I think he's going to win beyond the ACORN/SEIU margin of error.

Here is Charles Franklin's at Pollster.com analysis that concludes,
But no matter how you slice the data, the only reasonable conclusion is that Scott Brown has moved from well behind to a lead somewhere between 4 and 11 points.
Whether you want to look only at Democratic-leaning polling outfits or non-partisan outfits, things look good.

Even the White House sources are leaking that they think their candidate is going to lose.

And check out this result from Suffolk University (not a partisan outfit) where they polled three counties in Massachusetts that are supposed to be bellwethers in that their margins paralleled the margin across the state in 2006.
Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.
Stuart Rothenberg, that bellwether of conventional wisdom is predicting "a comfortable win" for Scott Brown.

All that work, all that negotiating, all those corrupt deals, and the American people just don't seem to like what Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama came up with for their agenda. Who would have thought, a year out from Obama's glorious ascension to the presidency when the skies opened and angels sang a year ago as he took the oath, that we would be witnessing such a repudiation of his personal appeals to the voters of Bluesachusetts to replace Ted Kennedy? It's just amazing!