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Saturday, January 16, 2010

Newest polls on the Massachusetts race

ARG is out with the most recent poll of likely voters on the Massachusetts race. They show Brown up by 3, 48% to 45%.

Jim Geraghty reports
on the internal polls from both campaigns which are showing results all over the map, but uniformly bad for Martha Coakley. The Brown's internal poll shows him up by 11, and the Coakley internal poll shows her even with Borwn, although Steve Kornacki reports that her internal polls on Friday show her down by 3 while the results from Wednesday had her up by 2. That would be a five point decline in one day. Such a free fall within the Democrats' own polls is amazing. It was just less than a week ago that the Democrats were publicizing their internal polls on January 11 that showed Coakley up by 14. If Kornacki's figures are right that she lost 5 points from Wednesday night to Thursday night, then it's believable that she'd gone from being up 14 on Monday to down 3 by Friday. And remember, her campaign was reporting her up 14 when other nonpartisan polls were showing a much tighter race. If you assume that each party's internal polls might be more optimistic towards their own side, either set of polls spells bad news for Coakley.

UPDATE: Intrade has Coakley and Brown at 50:50. Two days ago they had her up 77:23. Link via Hot Air.

UPDATE II: Since my last post on Intrade a couple of ours ago, Brown has gone into the lead there.

1 comment:

Pat Patterson said...

Once you figure out how Intrade works its pretty neat. All the advantages of watching a train wreck and having the wreck take place over ten or so days. But the disadvantages are that this also represents people chasing a trend rather than being part of it. And that in betting the favorite only wins 33% of the time.