The 2010 census could add multiple House seats to red-leaning states — as many as four districts to Texas and two each to Arizona and Florida. And it could subtract seats from blue-trending states like Michigan, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.But there is no guarantee that Republicans will continue to control both houses in state legislatures as well as the governorships in those states. Or that they will have any hope of controlling one of the houses in the blue states. Since the Supreme Court has refused to block strictly political gerrymanders the gloves will be off in the next redistricting phase. Concerns about how those state elections go in 2010 are underlying all the political battles that we're facing today. The Hill has a good round up changes likely to occur after the 2010 census as well as a breakdown of the partisan control of state legislatures and governors in the states likely to see a change after the apportionment process.
Most of the states slated to gain seats in reapportionment next cycle feature Republican-controlled state legislatures and governor’s mansions — the powerhouses that decide how to allocate congressional districts.
States expecting to lose seats are more of a mixed bag, with most facing split control in those branches of government, which generally results in compromise.
You might also enjoy this redistricting game that my students had a lot of fun with. See if you can engineer a successful political gerrymander or if you can craft a majority minority district.
6 comments:
There will also be a strong red performance if the trunks can get their act together for the mid terms. Pelosi-Obama-Reid will not have ameliorated the economy and will have severely overplayed their hand. 2010 should see a balancing of legislatures just in time for the gerrymandering game to begin. Part of the wonder of the self-equilibrating system our founders discovered that makes us hold those few mortals in such awe.
This is probably why there's $4 billion for ACORN in the notastimulusbutapork bill. For the Democrats their strategy is why leave elections to chance when you can fix them before they take place. ACORN is just part of the process. As an aside, with the promised largesse in the current bill and the riches ACORN has scored from previous Congresses the Democrats take unique pleasure in having the taxpayer pay for their shenanigans.
The Democrats are very aware of what's coming up and they will do their unlevel best to make sure things go their way.
They left the 2000 election to chance and they won't do it again while their guard is up.
I hope you took some time to study California's reapportionment disaster of 2000. Even speaking as a Democrat, I can freely admit that it was disastrous for the state. Out of 120 legislative districts, there are about 12 which are genuinely competitive.
And the small number of contested seats usually only come about because of drunkeness, depravity, dementia or death. Though the former three are not ironclad and a few have even avoided changing partys by finesseing the last.
Ugh, I don't like hearing that my state of Ohio leans blue. Before 2006 we had all the state wide offices, and now we have none. We also were respected as one of the top Republican state organizations in the country. I hope we can make some gains in 2010.
Interesting that NC is no longer being slated to gain a seat.
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