Don't expect tonight to be a game-changer

For Republicans who are hoping that John McCain will be able to turn the trajectory of this campaign around tonight, I would advise them not to get their hopes up. I wouldn't depend on John McCain's supposed superior ability to do townhall-type discussions. Barack Obama has been improving and he'll probably show the same skill he showed in answering questions in the first debate.

And I wouldn't expect John McCain to launch into negative attacks on Obama's questionable associations with a whole series of radical people who seem to despise America. McCain doesn't like making these attacks and I wouldn't be surprised if he neglected the opportunity tonight to bring up those accusations. It's one thing to have your vice presidential candidate bring up that sort of stuff, but it's another to do it in front of a townhall debate when the questioners will probably be asking questions about all the issues that concern people today. The whole situation calls out for a serious discussion of the many problems facing the incoming president and not for attacks on your opponent's ties with some pretty questionable people. McCain can point out how inexperienced Obama is and how scanty a record he actually has, but people seem to have already absorbed that truth about Obama and dismissed it. They might have doubts about his lack of a record but they seem ready to roll the dice.

Also, don't discount the possibility of having some off-the-wall gooey sort of question that calls on the candidates to eschew partisan divisiveness. John Dickereson of Slate reminds us of that goofy question asked in 1992 by the so-called pony-tail guy who asked George H.W. Bush, Ross Perot, and Bill Clinton this marvelous question.

Referring to voters as "symbolically the children of the future president," he asked how voters could expect the candidates "to meet our needs, the needs in housing and in crime and you name it, as opposed to the wants of your political spin doctors and your political parties. ... Could we cross our hearts? It sounds silly here but could we make a commitment? You know, we're not under oath at this point, but could you make a commitment to the citizens of the U.S. to meet our needs—and we have many—and not yours again?"

Ugh! I hope we won't hear such vapidity again tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hear a question about how these two men might work together with those of the other party to address our nation's problems. And in that sort of environment it's even harder for John McCain to explain why America shouldn't turn itself over to undivided Democratic control of the legislative and executive branches.

This is an opportunity for John McCain to explain how his policies are better for the country. He needs to clarify his health care plan which the Obama campaign has been mischaracterizing. He needs to explain why raising taxes on the wealthy isn't a path to grow our economy in the face of a looming recession. He needs to show that he connects to the worries that people have about their pensions, investments, chances of getting a loan for a car or college or a house. That isn't something that John McCain has ever shown himself adept at doing. So, in the face of bad deficits in the polls, he has an extremely difficult job in front of himself tonight. Barack Obama, however, has to just do no harm. So don't expect the campaign to radically shift after tonight.