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Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Please keep in the race, Hillary

 
As a Republican, I sure hope Hillary stays in the race. It has only been her presence in the Democratic nomination fight that has highlighted the weaknesses of Obama as a general election candidate.

Fortunately, I bet Clinton will stay in the race. The Clintons just don't give in or bow to circumstances. She will still point to her victories among white voters as an excuse to stay in, but the math is all against her. It's her own fault for not organizing better to fight in the caucus states. For all the supposed political brilliance of the Clintons, they missed the importance of organization in all the states that held caucuses instead of primaries. And they had plenty of notice that Obama would be dangerous competitor from the time he got in the race last year.

Another argument she can use to stay in is the recent Gallup poll that shows that the majority of Democrats want the race to continue.
6 in 10 Democrats say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should continue their presidential campaigns. Of the minority who would like to see either Clinton or Obama drop out and concede the nomination, more call for Clinton to step down than Obama.
And why shouldn't they want the race to continue? It's generated a lot of excitement and interest in the election. And that level of excitement and interest wouldn't have continued if the whole fight had been wrapped up in February. The Democrats have gotten loads of newly registered voters. Sure, some of those voters might be Operation Chaos troublemakers, but I bet a lot of them are young voters who are jazzed by Obama's campaign. I have seen it among my own students where kids who are going to be 18 by the November election went out and got registered in numbers I haven't ever seen before among my students. And then proudly wore their "I voted" stickers to school.

As Fred Barnes argued yesterday, we've learned a lot about Hillary and Obama in the past few months from seeing them campaign. And that is information that is valuable to the voters.
Presidential elections are unique. Voters choose a person, not just the leading member of a political party. So what matters, in addition to the position of the candidates on policy issues, are their personal traits – character, judgment, temperament and basic honesty.

Voters don't learn much about these characteristics in a truncated primary season. It takes a longer campaign, one in which the surviving candidates respond to victory and defeat, and to moments of strain or surprise or embarrassment. Candidates may not relish a primary marathon, but voters benefit enormously from it.

The 2008 schedule was structured to crown a nominee on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when more than 20 primaries were held. That meant the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination would be over in one month (as the Republican race indeed was). At that stage, Democratic voters had seen Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton among a crowd of candidates in TV debates. But only a small fraction had seen the candidates in person. No one had seen them together, just the two of them, discussing their strengths and weaknesses.
Hillary Clinton has become a much better candidate since January and February. Voters had a chance to really ponder the role of Bill Clinton in her campaign and what that would mean about in a second Clinton WHite House. And they got to see how Barack Obama reacted to pressure. They learned more of his story.
In the early primaries, Mr. Obama was a likeable candidate who delivered an inspiring speech and waged a disciplined, mistake-free campaign. Beyond that, he was largely an unknown figure to most voters outside his home state of Illinois. Now voters know much more. They've seen his unruffled reaction after winning primaries and after losing them. They've watched his cool response to Mrs. Clinton's criticism of him in debates and his none-too-subtle efforts to deflect questions about personal matters.
Just imagine what voters would have learned about John McCain if he were still in a tight race and appearing in combative debates every few weeks. That is information that voters benefit from knowing.

So while I certainly ahve partisan reasons to pull for Clinton to stay in and stage all sorts of ugly fights at the convention, I also think that the voters have benefited from seeing these two candidates battle it out into May instead of having the race all wrapped up after February 5. I know that the candidates have been at it full time since January of 2007, but most voters weren't paying much attention last year. They only perked up this year when it became clear that the Democrats were in a real fight. So stop bemoaning the long campaign and sit back and appreciate what we've learned about the candidates. Isn't it good when voters know more rather than less about candidates?

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Comments:
 
As a Republican, I sure hope Hillary stays in the race. It has only been her presence in the Democratic nomination fight that has highlighted the weaknesses of Obama as a general election candidate.

Fortunately, I bet Clinton will stay in the race. The Clintons just don't give in or bow to circumstances. She will still point to her victories among white voters as an excuse to stay in, but the math is all against her. It's her own fault for not organizing better to fight in the caucus states. For all the supposed political brilliance of the Clintons, they missed the importance of organization in all the states that held caucuses instead of primaries. And they had plenty of notice that Obama would be dangerous competitor from the time he got in the race last year.

Another argument she can use to stay in is the recent Gallup poll that shows that the majority of Democrats want the race to continue.
6 in 10 Democrats say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should continue their presidential campaigns. Of the minority who would like to see either Clinton or Obama drop out and concede the nomination, more call for Clinton to step down than Obama.
And why shouldn't they want the race to continue? It's generated a lot of excitement and interest in the election. And that level of excitement and interest wouldn't have continued if the whole fight had been wrapped up in February. The Democrats have gotten loads of newly registered voters. Sure, some of those voters might be Operation Chaos troublemakers, but I bet a lot of them are young voters who are jazzed by Obama's campaign. I have seen it among my own students where kids who are going to be 18 by the November election went out and got registered in numbers I haven't ever seen before among my students. And then proudly wore their "I voted" stickers to school.

As Fred Barnes argued yesterday, we've learned a lot about Hillary and Obama in the past few months from seeing them campaign. And that is information that is valuable to the voters.
Presidential elections are unique. Voters choose a person, not just the leading member of a political party. So what matters, in addition to the position of the candidates on policy issues, are their personal traits – character, judgment, temperament and basic honesty.

Voters don't learn much about these characteristics in a truncated primary season. It takes a longer campaign, one in which the surviving candidates respond to victory and defeat, and to moments of strain or surprise or embarrassment. Candidates may not relish a primary marathon, but voters benefit enormously from it.

The 2008 schedule was structured to crown a nominee on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, when more than 20 primaries were held. That meant the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination would be over in one month (as the Republican race indeed was). At that stage, Democratic voters had seen Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton among a crowd of candidates in TV debates. But only a small fraction had seen the candidates in person. No one had seen them together, just the two of them, discussing their strengths and weaknesses.
Hillary Clinton has become a much better candidate since January and February. Voters had a chance to really ponder the role of Bill Clinton in her campaign and what that would mean about in a second Clinton WHite House. And they got to see how Barack Obama reacted to pressure. They learned more of his story.
In the early primaries, Mr. Obama was a likeable candidate who delivered an inspiring speech and waged a disciplined, mistake-free campaign. Beyond that, he was largely an unknown figure to most voters outside his home state of Illinois. Now voters know much more. They've seen his unruffled reaction after winning primaries and after losing them. They've watched his cool response to Mrs. Clinton's criticism of him in debates and his none-too-subtle efforts to deflect questions about personal matters.
Just imagine what voters would have learned about John McCain if he were still in a tight race and appearing in combative debates every few weeks. That is information that voters benefit from knowing.

So while I certainly ahve partisan reasons to pull for Clinton to stay in and stage all sorts of ugly fights at the convention, I also think that the voters have benefited from seeing these two candidates battle it out into May instead of having the race all wrapped up after February 5. I know that the candidates have been at it full time since January of 2007, but most voters weren't paying much attention last year. They only perked up this year when it became clear that the Democrats were in a real fight. So stop bemoaning the long campaign and sit back and appreciate what we've learned about the candidates. Isn't it good when voters know more rather than less about candidates?

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