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Thursday, January 03, 2008

Could this be the end of the road for Thompson?

 
Sadly, the Fred campaign has been more of a fizzle than a fireworks show. He's not done what the media punditocracy expects a candidate to do. And while I would have loved to have seen a non-traditional candidacy rewrite the books on how to run a race in the 21st century, it hasn't come together like that for Fred Thompson. And now even his aides are hinting about him dropping out if he doesn't do very well in Iowa. And if he does drop out, look for him to endorse his old buddy John McCain giving more of a boost to McCain's numbers.
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.

This reality—combined with a fundraising drought—left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.

Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire.

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday.
Thompson has said recently that he needs to come in second in Iowa and that doesn't look like it's going to happen.

Having a story like this run the day of the caucuses is not good news for Thompson. Some of his supporters might decide to go for McCain tonight and just save time.

UPDATE: The Thompson campaign is strongly denying this story.
Good morning from Des Moines. I just got off the phone with Rich Galen, a top adviser to Fred Thompson, and it would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson "will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus."

The story cites "several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign." Galen told me, "I'm a Republican official in the Thompson campaign, and I'm denying it." Galen also said that no one inside the campaign was a source for the story. "I can't put enough adjectives in front of the 'deny' to accurately describe how vehemently I'm denying the story," he said.

Galen said that "just to make sure," he checked with Thompson himself, who told him the story was not true. "We have the schedule for Saturday and Sunday in New Hampshire, and then we're going down to South Carolina," Galen told me.
The Fred team has got to hope that however few people in Iowa might be reading the Politico that they're also reading the denials. I'm waiting to see how the Politico writers of this story, Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, respond to the vociferous denials from the Thompson camp. Something strange is going on here. Fred Thompson denied the story himself in a radio interview and cast the blame on a rival campaign.
GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said in an in-studio interview with KCCI-TV in Des Moines that there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa.

"That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth," said the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee.

Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor.

"Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked.
I would like to think that Martin and Allen are good enough reporters not to be taken in by a dirty trick like that and can identify who is working for one campaign or another. But stranger things have happened in the media.

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Sadly, the Fred campaign has been more of a fizzle than a fireworks show. He's not done what the media punditocracy expects a candidate to do. And while I would have loved to have seen a non-traditional candidacy rewrite the books on how to run a race in the 21st century, it hasn't come together like that for Fred Thompson. And now even his aides are hinting about him dropping out if he doesn't do very well in Iowa. And if he does drop out, look for him to endorse his old buddy John McCain giving more of a boost to McCain's numbers.
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.

Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.

This reality—combined with a fundraising drought—left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.

Thompson’s departure could shake up the race more than his continued presence. Friends and advisers said they have long considered it likely that if the lobbyist-actor is forced from the race he would endorse John McCain his former Senate colleague who lately has been staging a political revival in New Hampshire.

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” a Thompson adviser said Wednesday.
Thompson has said recently that he needs to come in second in Iowa and that doesn't look like it's going to happen.

Having a story like this run the day of the caucuses is not good news for Thompson. Some of his supporters might decide to go for McCain tonight and just save time.

UPDATE: The Thompson campaign is strongly denying this story.
Good morning from Des Moines. I just got off the phone with Rich Galen, a top adviser to Fred Thompson, and it would be an understament to say that he is strongly denying the Politico story reporting that Thompson "will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday's caucus."

The story cites "several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson's presidential campaign." Galen told me, "I'm a Republican official in the Thompson campaign, and I'm denying it." Galen also said that no one inside the campaign was a source for the story. "I can't put enough adjectives in front of the 'deny' to accurately describe how vehemently I'm denying the story," he said.

Galen said that "just to make sure," he checked with Thompson himself, who told him the story was not true. "We have the schedule for Saturday and Sunday in New Hampshire, and then we're going down to South Carolina," Galen told me.
The Fred team has got to hope that however few people in Iowa might be reading the Politico that they're also reading the denials. I'm waiting to see how the Politico writers of this story, Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, respond to the vociferous denials from the Thompson camp. Something strange is going on here. Fred Thompson denied the story himself in a radio interview and cast the blame on a rival campaign.
GOP presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said in an in-studio interview with KCCI-TV in Des Moines that there is no truth to rumors that his campaign will fold before New Hampshire if he doesn't have a strong showing in Iowa.

"That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth," said the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee.

Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor.

"Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked.
I would like to think that Martin and Allen are good enough reporters not to be taken in by a dirty trick like that and can identify who is working for one campaign or another. But stranger things have happened in the media.

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