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Monday, January 07, 2008

Could New Hampshire shut the door on the Clinton era?

With polls showing that Obama is heading to a decisive victory in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. The Clinton campaign is facing the fact that Bill Clinton just doesn't have the pizzazz to spark a revival for his wife's campaign. He's yesterday's story and the crowds and their excitement are moving to the Obama appearances. The New York Times describes this end to the old Clinton magic.
Is this what it would have been like had Elvis been reduced to playing Reno?

Former President Bill Clinton has been drawing sleepy and sometimes smallish crowds at big venues in the state that revived his presidential campaign in 1992. He entered to polite applause and rows of empty seats at the University of New Hampshire on Friday. Several people filed out midspeech, and the room was largely quiet as he spoke, with few interruptions for laughter or applause.
It's not good when the crowds are described as "listless" and "passive."

Perhaps the Clinton machine can still pull it out. Like Rudy Giuliani, she'll have to put her hope on the big states on February 5. But Obama has enough money to go toe-to-toe with her in those states. And he'll have the wind at his back. And his campaign seems to be run quite well. I heard Bill Kristol yesterday describe the get out the vote campaign that the Obama people are running in New Hampshire sending neighbors to come talk to undecided voters. That was what made the difference for the Bush campaign in 2004 in Ohio and the Obama people have apparently learned that getting neighbors out there to try to persuade their own neighbors is much more effective than having strangers make phone calls. Perhaps the Clinton campaign is launching the same sort of person-to-person effort on the ground there in New Hampshire; I just haven't heard about it. But when a candidate has that JFK-glow attributed to him it's a lot easier to get those individuals out to knock on doors.

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