The campaign can change in a multitude of ways

Michael Barone looks today at how there are so many possibilities there are in this election. If Hillary loses in Iowa to Obama, her shield of invincibility will be pierced. Iowa is wide open for the Republicans and no one really knows what the impact will be on the later primaries. Democrats are quite sanguine about their chances in 2008, but we really haven't had yet a head-to-head debate over ideas and policies between the two parties.

What we have not seen yet is a debate between the two parties on ideas. The Democratic candidates have been busy pounding George W. Bush, who will not be on the ballot. The Republican candidates have been busy pounding Hillary Clinton, who may or may not be on the ballot. And candidates in each of the parties have gotten started pounding each other. These arguments are mostly about the past. We haven't heard much yet about the future.

The differences among the Democratic candidates on policy are pretty small so there hasn't been as much substance in their debates. There are wider differences among the GOP candidates, but still there is a basic similarity in their approaches to major policy issues. But there are wide differences between the GOP and Democratic approaches to those issues. And the general election environment will change as they make their cases. And, there will be all those attacks that each party will launch against the other party's candidate. If it's Hillary, the vague criticisms that Obama and Edwards are making now against her will seem like the powder puff campaigning it's been. And, if the GOP chooses Giuliani, I'm sure that the Democrats have rafts of attacks loaded up to make. Voters who want to avoid that sort of attack politics might start pondering which candidate in their own party will be less open to those sorts of personal attacks. I would think that Obama and McCain are the candidates that each party could put up to avoid the sort of ugly campaign that a Hillary vs. Rudy contest would degenerate into. Unless the Novak rumor of Hillary's campaign holding some nasty attack on Obama, he will be vulnerable only on his lack of experience. The Republicans would run a big risk attacking the first black candidate nominated by a major party. And the Democrats will have to worry about attacking a genuine war hero who has a wide reputation for honesty in his politics. So they'd have to fight it out on policy rather than attacks on each other's past behavior. Such a campaign would be totally different than a Clinton vs. Giuliani campaign. So, I'm with Barone: things are still pretty open.