Will Barack go after Hillary?

Howard Fineman is egging Obama on to start attacking Hillary.

In this most political of primary states, the urgent question in the Democratic presidential race on the eve of an MSNBC debate is: when will Sen. Barack Obama go after – really go after – Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton? For if he doesn’t do it soon, and effectively, the contest for the 2008 nomination may well be over before it officially starts.

Does Obama think that Hillary is dangerously “more of the same” in international affairs – a Bush in Democratic clothing? Does he think she is the blind and corrupted product of a hopelessly tarnished system of money and access in the nation’s capital? Does he think that it’s time for the upper, “Howdy Doody” end of the Baby Boom, now approaching retirement age in the Peanut Gallery, to stand aside for Gen X and even Gen Y leadership? These are the subtext – the rationale – of his campaign. But if he believes it, and I think he does, the text had better go from sub to surface, fast.

Since they are Chicagoans, sort of, and since this is football season, let me use a gridiron analogy. Unless Obama absorbs the spirit of the riled up ’85 Bears, who blitzed on every down, Hillary will continue to dink and dunk her way down the field to victory.

Fineman sounds almost put out that the Democratic nomination fight isn't shaping up to be much of a fight. Is he giving Obama this advice because he wants to see Obama take down Hillary or because he's just sick already of covering the Hillary juggernaut?

He offers a few reasons why we shouldn't assume that Clinton has the nomination all wrapped up.

Money: The Clintonistas are telling me that they think Obama will outraise them again in the third quarter. He has been spending lots of cash, especially in Iowa, but still is likely to have much more COH (cash on hand) than Hillary for the next few months. This is a novel situation: an “outsider, insurgent” candidate with more money to throw around than the establishment candidate. How he spends this money is critical. He has a choice: keep trying to be the coolest, most admirable character on the quad – or go after the BWOC.

Media: Lets’ face it, the press’s native mode is to want a race and, by our very nature, we will try to force one into existence if for no other reason than it is “good copy” and “good TV.” True, the GOP presidential race is likely to be entertainingly close, confused and chaotic. Still, Clinton is THE story, and the farther ahead she gets in the polls and in CW thinking, the more sensational the story would be of a sudden fall from presidential inevitability.

Bill: What the First Husband giveth, he can take away. In the “World According to Garp,” the hero argues that it is safe to move into a house because it once had been hit by an airplane. Thus, he says, the place was “pre-disastered.” So is the Clinton marriage. I think Hillary can survive almost any imaginable new chapter in their saga, IF there is one to be written. The key word: almost.


Independents: In New Hampshire, this is Obama’s real chance – the chance for what would be a stunning upset. I flew up here today with former Sen. Warren Rudman, a moderate Republican (and John McCain supporter) who is one of the most knowledgeable men alive about politics in the Granite State. He pointed out to me that there are, today, more voters in New Hampshire registered as Independents than as either Republicans or Democrats. He reminded me that they can easily vote in either primary. The interplay of the two primaries is crucial. In 2000, McCain’s candidacy drew most of the independents into the GOP race, giving McCain the upset win over George Bush and effectively killing Sen. Bill Bradley’s chances against Vice President Al Gore. In 2008, I doubt that many independents are going to vote in the GOP primary. They are going to gravitate to the Democratic race. If Obama is going to win, that is the constituency he needs. The sales effort has to start tomorrow.

I'm not so sure that the New Hampshire independents are going to prefer to vote in the Democratic primary rather than the Republican one. If the races stand where they are, they might figure that they can have more impact by voting for McCain in the GOP race instead of Obama in the Democratic one. It will depend on how close the races seem to be over the next few months. Fineman may well be whistling past the graveyard in his attempt to stir up a better story. Unless there is a major change, it seems that the Obama moment has passed us by already.