The Ames Straw Poll

I have ambivalent feelings about all the hoopla in pundit-ville about the Ames GOP Straw Poll. On one hand, I think there is something endearlingly American about voters turning out with their families to hear the candidates, dine on barbecue and fried oreos, and then vote. It recalls earlier days in our republic's history when voting was an all-day family picnic sort of event. It reminded me for some odd reason of the story of George Washington's campaign in 1758 for the Virginia House of Burgesses during which Washington made sure to supply plenty of alcoholic beverages for the voter. Historian W. J. Rorabaugh has computed that Washington provided 144 gallons of alcohol to win 307 votes, close to a half-gallon per vote. For those complaining on the millions that Mitt Romney spent to win 31% of the straw vote, it doesn't seem as if we've come that far from 1758 and, at least, in Mitt Romney's tent, they weren't supplying alcohol.

However, it's hard to get all that excited about the results as bearing any great portents of the final outcome of the vote for the Republican nominee, especially when Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson didn't even participate. The one thing that perhaps the vote might have done is narrowed the field down a bit. It seems that we may lose Tommy Thompson as a result. And the biggest loser is probably Sam Brownback who spent money and actively competed for the vote in order to show that he was the conservatives' chosen candidate, yet ended up losing to the perhaps more likable Mike Huckabee who didn't spend near as much money as Brownback.

It seems that the line on Romney from before yesterday will be the same afterwards. He is a feasible candidate who is spending a lot of money to win Iowa and New Hampshire and hopes that winning those two early states, that now look like they will be voting on consecutive days, will be enough to propel him to the lead in the states following those early votes. Perhaps it will. The lovely thing about this election is that we just don't know how all the unknown factors will play out. How will all the frontloading of vote-rich states like Florida and California affect the race? How will having a pro-choice candidate like Rudy Giuliani factor in the primaries? How will Fred Thompson's relatively late entry into the race play out? I start school in three days and I'm so excited about my AP Government and Politics class to experience politics in such a fascinating year, a year in which the pundits really just don't know what is going to happen.

My feeling is that Republican voters will be a bit like Democratic primary voters in 2004. We just wanna win, baby. Especially if, as it looks now, Hillary Clinton is going to be coasting to victory in the Democratic race. Republicans will swallow a lot and choose a candidate that they might not pick in a more propitious time for Republicans if they think he can beat Hillary. Giuliani is touting his credentials to bring in some northeastern states and McCain is saying that he can appeal to independents. Fred Thompson's supporters are hoping that he'll emulate Reagan's appeal to Democrats. Whoever is the most convincing will, I predict, end up the victor.