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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Good news for Rudy

 
Politico writer David Paul Kuhn writes that many social conservatives are coming around to backing Rudy Giuliani because they regard him as the most electable of the GOP candidates.
Widespread perceptions that Giuliani is the most electable Republican in this year's field are driving his support among social conservatives, according to the analysis by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

If the trend holds, this apparent willingness to support a candidate who fails what were once regarded as litmus-test issues would mark a landmark shift in the political behavior of a constituency that has been a pillar of the modern GOP. Already the shift is spurring sharp debate among prominent Christian conservative leaders, some of whom warn that Giuliani backers are abandoning core principles.

Forty-four percent of social conservatives in the Pew analysis believe that the former New York mayor has the "best chance" of becoming president in 2008. Less than half that figure, 19 percent, regard Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the most viable, despite twice as many social conservatives stating that McCain “comes closest” to their view on abortion. All other Republican candidates lagged far behind.

These calculations about electability are helping propel Giuliani over McCain among social conservatives, even though the Arizonan shares the opposition of most of these voters to abortion rights.

Giuliani is winning 30 percent of the social conservative bloc, compared to 22 percent for McCain. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney captured just 8 percent -- a figure that puts Romney in fourth place, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is currently not a declared candidate.

No supporter of abortion rights has run competitively in GOP nominating contests since 1976, when Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan.
Given that the biggest impact that a president has on such social issues is through judicial appointments and that Rudy has pledged to nominate strict constructionists, many socially conservative voters are willing to overlook his more liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gays. His stance on terrorism trumps his social positions for these voters. It also helps that conservatives just aren't comfortable with John McCain so McCain can't keep those voters.

Of course, all this may well fall by the wayside if Fred Thompson jumps in the race and seems like a viable candidate to win it all. Those social conservatives now supporting Rudy could well be fair weather friends.

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Politico writer David Paul Kuhn writes that many social conservatives are coming around to backing Rudy Giuliani because they regard him as the most electable of the GOP candidates.
Widespread perceptions that Giuliani is the most electable Republican in this year's field are driving his support among social conservatives, according to the analysis by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.

If the trend holds, this apparent willingness to support a candidate who fails what were once regarded as litmus-test issues would mark a landmark shift in the political behavior of a constituency that has been a pillar of the modern GOP. Already the shift is spurring sharp debate among prominent Christian conservative leaders, some of whom warn that Giuliani backers are abandoning core principles.

Forty-four percent of social conservatives in the Pew analysis believe that the former New York mayor has the "best chance" of becoming president in 2008. Less than half that figure, 19 percent, regard Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the most viable, despite twice as many social conservatives stating that McCain “comes closest” to their view on abortion. All other Republican candidates lagged far behind.

These calculations about electability are helping propel Giuliani over McCain among social conservatives, even though the Arizonan shares the opposition of most of these voters to abortion rights.

Giuliani is winning 30 percent of the social conservative bloc, compared to 22 percent for McCain. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney captured just 8 percent -- a figure that puts Romney in fourth place, behind former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is currently not a declared candidate.

No supporter of abortion rights has run competitively in GOP nominating contests since 1976, when Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan.
Given that the biggest impact that a president has on such social issues is through judicial appointments and that Rudy has pledged to nominate strict constructionists, many socially conservative voters are willing to overlook his more liberal stances on issues such as abortion and gays. His stance on terrorism trumps his social positions for these voters. It also helps that conservatives just aren't comfortable with John McCain so McCain can't keep those voters.

Of course, all this may well fall by the wayside if Fred Thompson jumps in the race and seems like a viable candidate to win it all. Those social conservatives now supporting Rudy could well be fair weather friends.

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