Giving the surge a chance

Max Boot has a great column today explaining how the surge can work, but it will take time - years, in fact. Not the few months that politicians seem to think is all that we can allot it. All these politicians acting a if we'll get some definitive news about the success or failure of the surge and we'll be able to get out if it's failing or get out if it's succeeding are doing a great disservice to our efforts in Iraq. Such an approach just tells our enemies in Iraq that all they have to do is make August a month of spectacular suicide bombings for American politicians to turn tail and run. As Boot points out, suicide bombings, while tragic and dramatic, are not the best way to measure the success of the surge.

Slow progress toward an acceptable modus vivendi may still be possible as long as the U.S. doesn't insist on artificial timetables to resolve complex and emotional issues. What incentive do Iraqi politicians have to make compromises if they think that American troops are heading out the door? If that's the case, Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds would be well advised to avoid making any concessions that would strengthen their mortal enemies. Thus all the talk in Washington about troop withdrawals has the opposite effect from what is intended. Instead of spurring Iraqi politicians to compromise, it leads them to be more obdurate.
It's still possible to stave off catastrophic defeat in Iraq. But the only way to do it is to give Gen. Petraeus and his troops more time--at least another year--to try to change the dynamics on the ground. The surge strategy may be a long shot but every alternative is even worse.