Sunday, November 05, 2006

My prediction

The Washington Examiner asked the bloggers who write columns for it to make their predictions. Here is what I finally submitted. I battled between my head and my heart. My head won. I can see an argument where the Republicans keep enough seats to hold off the Democratic takeover of the House. However, I decided that it just wasn't possible for the Republicans to run the board on all the toss up seats.
Around Thanksgiving, when the last recount and court battle is finished and we find out the final count of the election, I think it will show that the Democrats did indeed take the House. But I think they will gain control by a very slight margin, picking up only 16 or 17 seats giving them only a one or two seat margin. Looking at the Real Clear Politics list of toss up seats, I think the Republicans will keep most of them, but lose some combination of seven or eight of those tossups and one or two of the leaning Republican seats.

Of the leaning Democratic seats that RCP identifies, I think the surprise will be that the Republicans will keep Foley and DeLay’s old seats. I just don’t buy the idea that Republican voters are too stupid or too lazy to know how to vote for the Republicans in the race. There has been enough publicity about what they need to do in order to vote for Sheila Sekula-Gibbs or Joe Negron that those Republicans will know how to vote. And I think that the idea that Republican voters will be so flummoxed by the little gizmo to write in Sekula-Gibbs just seems arrogant condescension. So what if it will be a tedious extra 60 seconds to do that? Republicans in Texas are up to that challenge!

For the Senate, I think the GOP will lose in PA, OH, and RI. But they’ll pull it out in VA, MT, and TN. Menendez will win in NJ, but Steele will win in MD and receive exactly 5% of the publicity for being a black Republican from a blue state that Barack Obama receives for being a black Democrat from a blue state.

Wishful thinking prediction: Mike Nifong will either lose in the Durham District Attorney’s race or just hold onto his seat by a very narrow plurality over a candidate who has announced that he would step down if he wins and let the Governor appoint a new DA.