Tuesday, September 05, 2006

More reason to doubt polls

Jim Geraghty has an interesting post looking at the polls in several senatorial elections right before the 2004 elections to test the proposition that the polls right before the elections are pretty close to the actual vote. Not so. And almost all the examples he cites involve overstating the Democratic candidate's portion of the vote.

Speaking of Jim Geraghty, I just got a copy in the mail of his new book, Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched the Era of Republican Leadership. It looks to be very interesting and to read much as his blog at NRO reads - insightful, humorous, and thought-provoking. He's looking at how the issue of security and terrorism has helped the Republicans to win elections in 2002 and 2004. He also predicts that terrorism will be the defining issue this year and in 2008. Chapter titles such as "An Unpopular Position on Gay Marriage is a Headache; An Unpopular Position on National Security Is the Ebola Virus;" "It Takes Time and Effort to Build a Reputation as a Wimp;" and "You Can't Win If YOu're Angrier at Halliburton Than Osama bin Laden" make me wish that I didn't have two classes of tests to grade tonight and could just curl up and read his book.