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Comments from an AP history
and government teacher in Raleigh, NC.
e-mail betsynewmark AT gmail.com
Commissions earned from selling items through Amazon will go towards buying materials for my classes. Thank you.
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Friday, July 14, 2006
Doom and gloom from AP/Ipsos
AP/Ipsos have a new poll out foretelling disaster in the upcoming elections for the GOP.The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.Before Republicans start slicing away at their wrists, there are a couple of things to remember. First, as I wrote about yesterday, generic questions about which party voters are going to choose are notoriously unreliable in predicting the actual vote. Also, AP/ISPSOS didn't have a great record in 2004. Less than two weeks before the election, they were one of the few polling outfits that showed Kerry in the lead 49 to 46 with 2% for Nader. Instead of the actual results of Bush 51% to Kerry 48% and Nader 1%. As DJ Drummond pointed out at the time, there were some strange results from that 2004 AP/IPSOS poll; for example, showing Kerry leading among women 55% to 40%. The actual gender split in the election was Kerry 49% to Bush 46%. It should have raised some flags at AP/IPSOS to have a 15 point gap among women's preferences, but apparently not. I suspect that when this current poll's internals are public information, we'll see some other screwy results.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives - 24 percent - said they will vote Democratic.
Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters - those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.
UPDATE: I found the internals from the AP/IPSOS poll. Just glancing over them, a couple of items leap out at me. In their poll, their partisan breakdown is a 12% gap with Democrats at 53% and Republicans at 41%. That's a very large gap. Rasmussen, which was the most accurate in predicting the 2004 election results (rather at the end of the spectrum from AP/IPSOS) is using a partisan breakdown with only a 3.3% advantage for Democrats among all adults. So, that 12 point advantage in the AP/IPSOS poll is rather extraordinary. And, of course, the parties were even at 37% apiece in the 2004 election.
Here is another anomaly that we can see in the AP/IPSOS results. Check out the breakdown by religion in their poll. Here are their results:
Protestant 45
Catholic 23
Mormon 1
Jewish 2
Muslim 1
Other Non-Christian 6
No religion 20
Refused/not sure 2
Now, compare to what the results were in the 2004 elections and you'll see that their breakdown just doesn't match up with the actual electorate.
Protestant 54
Catholic 27
Jewish 3
Other 7
None 10
Given that Republicans have an advantage among those who are more religiously observant and that Democrats have an advantage among those with no religious preference (Kerry won those voters 67 to 31 in 2004) it is not surprising that a poll that doubles the percent with no religious preference would skew Democratic.
So, although, you'll see their poll results reported all over the place because everyone subscribes to AP, you can take a few deep breaths before you start believing it.
Texas Rainmaker has some more on this poll.
0 comments
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AP/Ipsos have a new poll out foretelling disaster in the upcoming elections for the GOP.
UPDATE: I found the internals from the AP/IPSOS poll. Just glancing over them, a couple of items leap out at me. In their poll, their partisan breakdown is a 12% gap with Democrats at 53% and Republicans at 41%. That's a very large gap. Rasmussen, which was the most accurate in predicting the 2004 election results (rather at the end of the spectrum from AP/IPSOS) is using a partisan breakdown with only a 3.3% advantage for Democrats among all adults. So, that 12 point advantage in the AP/IPSOS poll is rather extraordinary. And, of course, the parties were even at 37% apiece in the 2004 election.
Here is another anomaly that we can see in the AP/IPSOS results. Check out the breakdown by religion in their poll. Here are their results:
Protestant 45
Catholic 23
Mormon 1
Jewish 2
Muslim 1
Other Non-Christian 6
No religion 20
Refused/not sure 2
Now, compare to what the results were in the 2004 elections and you'll see that their breakdown just doesn't match up with the actual electorate.
Protestant 54
Catholic 27
Jewish 3
Other 7
None 10
Given that Republicans have an advantage among those who are more religiously observant and that Democrats have an advantage among those with no religious preference (Kerry won those voters 67 to 31 in 2004) it is not surprising that a poll that doubles the percent with no religious preference would skew Democratic.
So, although, you'll see their poll results reported all over the place because everyone subscribes to AP, you can take a few deep breaths before you start believing it.
Texas Rainmaker has some more on this poll.
0 comments
AP/Ipsos have a new poll out foretelling disaster in the upcoming elections for the GOP.
The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.Before Republicans start slicing away at their wrists, there are a couple of things to remember. First, as I wrote about yesterday, generic questions about which party voters are going to choose are notoriously unreliable in predicting the actual vote. Also, AP/ISPSOS didn't have a great record in 2004. Less than two weeks before the election, they were one of the few polling outfits that showed Kerry in the lead 49 to 46 with 2% for Nader. Instead of the actual results of Bush 51% to Kerry 48% and Nader 1%. As DJ Drummond pointed out at the time, there were some strange results from that 2004 AP/IPSOS poll; for example, showing Kerry leading among women 55% to 40%. The actual gender split in the election was Kerry 49% to Bush 46%. It should have raised some flags at AP/IPSOS to have a 15 point gap among women's preferences, but apparently not. I suspect that when this current poll's internals are public information, we'll see some other screwy results.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives - 24 percent - said they will vote Democratic.
Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters - those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.
UPDATE: I found the internals from the AP/IPSOS poll. Just glancing over them, a couple of items leap out at me. In their poll, their partisan breakdown is a 12% gap with Democrats at 53% and Republicans at 41%. That's a very large gap. Rasmussen, which was the most accurate in predicting the 2004 election results (rather at the end of the spectrum from AP/IPSOS) is using a partisan breakdown with only a 3.3% advantage for Democrats among all adults. So, that 12 point advantage in the AP/IPSOS poll is rather extraordinary. And, of course, the parties were even at 37% apiece in the 2004 election.
Here is another anomaly that we can see in the AP/IPSOS results. Check out the breakdown by religion in their poll. Here are their results:
Protestant 45
Catholic 23
Mormon 1
Jewish 2
Muslim 1
Other Non-Christian 6
No religion 20
Refused/not sure 2
Now, compare to what the results were in the 2004 elections and you'll see that their breakdown just doesn't match up with the actual electorate.
Protestant 54
Catholic 27
Jewish 3
Other 7
None 10
Given that Republicans have an advantage among those who are more religiously observant and that Democrats have an advantage among those with no religious preference (Kerry won those voters 67 to 31 in 2004) it is not surprising that a poll that doubles the percent with no religious preference would skew Democratic.
So, although, you'll see their poll results reported all over the place because everyone subscribes to AP, you can take a few deep breaths before you start believing it.
Texas Rainmaker has some more on this poll.
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