I see that Andrew Cochran is thinking along the same lines I was about the eventual outcome of all this and the political ramifications.
The decision is actually a huge political gift to President Bush, and the detainees will not be released that easily. The President and GOP leaders will propose a bill to override the decision and keep the terrorists in jail until they are securely transferred to host countries for permanent punishment. The Administration and its allies will release plenty of information on the terrorist acts committed by the detainees for which they were detained (see this great ABC News interview with the Gitmo warden). They will also release information about those terrorist acts committed by Gitmo prisoners after they were released. They will challenge the "judicial interference with national security" and challenge dissenting Congressmen and civil libertarians to either stand with the terrorists or the American people. The Pentagon will continue to release a small number of detainees as circumstances allow. The bill will pass easily and quickly. And if the Supremes invalidate that law, we'll see another legislative response, and another, until they get it right. Just watch.
I don't know how easily and quickly it will pass, but I predict it will pass over lots of huffing and puffing by the Democrats in Congress. And that will all work, contrary to how the media sees this situation now, to the GOP's advantage. The Republicans benefit when the focus comes back to national security and the war in Iraq. The Democrats want to keep the focus on domestic issues, but those darn concerns with all the terrorists and the war in Iraq keep cropping up. How they must hate that. They even wrote a platform for the 2006 election without any mention of terrorists or the war in Iraq. They know that they can't win control of Congress just by appealing to those who oppose the war in Iraq so they need to sound tough on terrorism. A debate over how to treat people like Osama's chauffeur does not play to their strengths.
Bush's poll numbers have been creeping up in the past few weeks. Not much, but at least they're heading north. I suspect that just about all of the increase comes from Republicans and conservatives who had been fed up with Bush on immigration and spending. But the debate over setting a deadline for pulling out of Iraq and the discussion of the New York Times's publishing the SWIFT story reminded Republicans of why they don't trust the Democratic politicians to have the control of the country while terrorism is still the major issue facing the country.
And if the Senate comes around to agreeing that we need to settle the border security problems first, as is seeming more likely, before tackling a path to citizenship or a guest worker problem, more of those Republicans who were so angry over immigration will return to the fold. And if we're going to talk about the economy, there is always this and similar stories.
In fact, if Andrew Cochran and I are right about what will ultimately happen as a result of the Hamdan decision, look to hear a great gnashing of digital teeth over at the liberal blogs as well as conspiratorial mutterings about how the decision was all a Rovian plot to keep the focus on the fight against terrorism rather on the "culture of corruption" and minimum wage. posted by Betsy Newmark permalink 3:43 PM
