South Carolina, said yesterday on Face The Nation, that if Democrats attempt to filibuster, he will work to break it, meaning that this is not something the Gang of 14 had in mind. Do you agree with Senator Graham that this is not a filibusterable nomination?Some have speculated that the Democrats will try to filibuster this nomination. Here are Leon's thoughts at Red State.
MD: Oh, I absolutely do. I mean, this is not under what our definition of extraordinary circumstances is. This is a nomination that's clearly within the mainstream of conservative judges. This is someone who has a long, distinguished record, someone who I would classify as kind of a classic conservative justice, who believes you should decide each case one at a time, you should not be a judicial activist, you should not be intrusive, that a judge should kind of sit back, wait for that case to come, and then make a decision on the case, but not be really a legislator. And really, that's what this judge's record would, at least seem to me, to show.
HH: So absent any extraordinary revelation, is it fair to say, Senator DeWine, that if the Constitutional option has to be deployed, that you will vote for it?
MD: Oh, I certainly would. I would think, though, that this will not be necessary. I just...it's hard for me to envision why anyone would think that you would have to filibuster in this case, or why they would think it would be, as we defined it in our group of 14, that Lindsey and I were a part of, why we would define it as extraordinary circumstances.
Question 2: Will the Democrats filibuster? Given the noise that they are making now, I would rate the probability of filibuster at around 90%. The only way that I can see that a filibuster will be avoided at this point is if Harry Reid polls his caucus and absolutely determines that he does not have 40 votes to hold a filibuster. Promises from the Gang of 14 notwithstanding, I don't see this as a very likely event. However, even if Reid knows that he can't hold a filibuster, given the reaction from the base, he may risk the political damage of a broken filibuster and try it anyway.I will go on record predicting that there will be no attempt at a filibuster for Sam Alito just as there was none for John Roberts. I think that enough GOP senators will make it public that they will vote for the Constitutional option if there is a filibuster and that will serve as a successful brushback pitch to the Democratic members of the Gang. They will get word to Reid that they will not support a filibuster and he will decide not to risk one and having the right of filibustering nominees voted away.
Look at this list of Democrats who voted for Roberts. There were 22 Democrats plus Jeffords. I don't think Alito is going to lose more than half of that list. Forget the sound bites from people like Schumer, Reid, and Leahy. We already knew exactly what they were going to say. What would be more interesting is to hear from those who voted for Roberts. Do they really find Alito less qualified or more objectionable than Roberts?
I don't even think he'll lose the RINO senators. I'll predict that he'll get either in the high 60s or low 70s voting for his taking Sandra Day O'Connor seat on the Supreme Court. There will be a lot of yelling and posturing, but, in the end, there aren't enough Democrats to try the filibuster. And, after all the demonizing that will come in the next few weeks, it will become clear that this is a stellar nomination. If he is anything like those who know him are saying, he'll come off very well in the hearings. The polls will start coming in and the rest will be history.
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