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Comments from an AP history
and government teacher in Raleigh, NC.
e-mail betsynewmark AT gmail.com
Commissions earned from selling items through Amazon will go towards buying materials for my classes. Thank you.
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Thursday, September 29, 2005
On the face of it, things are looking very dismal for the Republicans for next year's elections. Dan Balz spells out what everyone in Washington seems to be saying.What worries Republicans is the confluence of a large number of scandals when Bush and the GOP Congress are at the weakest point in years. In the same fortnight as DeLay's indictment and Frist coming under an ethics cloud, David H. Safavian was arrested in connection with the Abramoff investigation days after resigning as the government's top procurement officer.Comparisons are being made to the Democrats facing congressional elections in 1994 and the blowout that happened then.
At an earlier point, Bush could have provided political cover for scandals that touched one or another Republican elected official. But with his approval ratings in the low 40s, there is little to prop up the party's image when congressional leaders are under investigation. Already there have been signs that Bush's influence with members of his own party was beginning to wane as House Republicans look to 2006. Without DeLay in power, the prospects of further splintering increase, adding to perceptions of a party in growing disarray.
I see two things that will help mitigate against that. One) the Democrats don't have a positive agenda to put forth. They aren't presenting much of a platform than "We're not those sleazy, incompetent Republicans." That might be enough if the public starts to think that all the problems are the Republicans' fault and the Democrats aren't involved. But if the public starts thinking that everyone up on Capitol Hill is corrupt, there just could be a massive turnoff to the whole election next year and that helps incumbents. Two) Congressional districts are now so gerrymandered and incumbents have so many built-in advantages that it will be hard, but not impossible, for the Democrats to flip enough seats their way. They have to win almost every open seat or be able to take down some of the incumbents and that is a tough job. It can be done, however, so the GOP shouldn't be relaxing in their easy chairs.
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On the face of it, things are looking very dismal for the Republicans for next year's elections. Dan Balz spells out what everyone in Washington seems to be saying.
I see two things that will help mitigate against that. One) the Democrats don't have a positive agenda to put forth. They aren't presenting much of a platform than "We're not those sleazy, incompetent Republicans." That might be enough if the public starts to think that all the problems are the Republicans' fault and the Democrats aren't involved. But if the public starts thinking that everyone up on Capitol Hill is corrupt, there just could be a massive turnoff to the whole election next year and that helps incumbents. Two) Congressional districts are now so gerrymandered and incumbents have so many built-in advantages that it will be hard, but not impossible, for the Democrats to flip enough seats their way. They have to win almost every open seat or be able to take down some of the incumbents and that is a tough job. It can be done, however, so the GOP shouldn't be relaxing in their easy chairs.
0 comments
On the face of it, things are looking very dismal for the Republicans for next year's elections. Dan Balz spells out what everyone in Washington seems to be saying.
What worries Republicans is the confluence of a large number of scandals when Bush and the GOP Congress are at the weakest point in years. In the same fortnight as DeLay's indictment and Frist coming under an ethics cloud, David H. Safavian was arrested in connection with the Abramoff investigation days after resigning as the government's top procurement officer.Comparisons are being made to the Democrats facing congressional elections in 1994 and the blowout that happened then.
At an earlier point, Bush could have provided political cover for scandals that touched one or another Republican elected official. But with his approval ratings in the low 40s, there is little to prop up the party's image when congressional leaders are under investigation. Already there have been signs that Bush's influence with members of his own party was beginning to wane as House Republicans look to 2006. Without DeLay in power, the prospects of further splintering increase, adding to perceptions of a party in growing disarray.
I see two things that will help mitigate against that. One) the Democrats don't have a positive agenda to put forth. They aren't presenting much of a platform than "We're not those sleazy, incompetent Republicans." That might be enough if the public starts to think that all the problems are the Republicans' fault and the Democrats aren't involved. But if the public starts thinking that everyone up on Capitol Hill is corrupt, there just could be a massive turnoff to the whole election next year and that helps incumbents. Two) Congressional districts are now so gerrymandered and incumbents have so many built-in advantages that it will be hard, but not impossible, for the Democrats to flip enough seats their way. They have to win almost every open seat or be able to take down some of the incumbents and that is a tough job. It can be done, however, so the GOP shouldn't be relaxing in their easy chairs.
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